Over the last several months I have researched various aspects of tornado formation for my science research class at school. Here is the abstract from my final paper.
Though tornadoes have devastated mankind for centuries, recent scientific discoveries could enable more timely and accurate forecasting that minimizes their harms. Among the necessary components of tornado formation is convection, a form of vertical heat transfer in the atmosphere that is measured in terms of adiabatic and environmental lapse rate. This research analyzed the effects of varying environmental lapse rates on tornado velocity. To test this relationship, a tornado simulation chamber was constructed using a 70 CFM bathroom exhaust fan. To adjust the environmental lapse rate within the chamber, a pan with water of different temperatures was placed in the base. Temperatures were adjusted so that ten tornadoes were observed within each interval of 5 °C from 0 °C to 25 °C. Maximum wind velocities were recorded over one minute time periods. A strongly positive correlation between environmental lapse rate and tornado velocity was found with a correlation coefficient of 0.92 and an R-squared statistic of 0.85. The results of this research could enable meteorologists to more accurately predict the probability of severe tornadoes and thus issue more effective forecasts. By recording the environmental lapse rate in a region at any given time, they can calculate the potential risk of the tornado in terms of its wind velocity.
Figure 1: Environmental Lapse Rate (Water Temperature) vs. Tornado Velocity
Table 1: Average Tornado Velocity Within Each Interval of Water Temperature
☼ JB
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